Commercial Vehicle Industry 2025: Bracing for Impact, Building for Resilience

The commercial vehicle industry approaches Q4 of 2025 facing headwinds that are stronger and more unpredictable than we’ve seen in recent years. At the recent MEMA Original Equipment Suppliers Commercial Vehicle Outlook Conference, the message from our industry’s brightest minds was clear: while the near-term outlook is challenging, the foundations for long-term resilience are being laid today.

A Slingshot Economy

Kenny Vieth of ACT Research framed the market as a “slingshot pulled back hard.” Current freight weakness, rising tariffs and cost pressures are real, but so is the pent-up demand that will fuel recovery. The rebound will come suddenly, likely after 2026, and those who prepare now will be best positioned to lead when the market snaps forward.

Suppliers at the Bottom of the Bathtub

Our Real-World View panel underscored that suppliers are not in freefall, but rather drifting along the “bottom of the bathtub,” as Bendix’s Nicole Oreskovic described it. Profitability has thinned, OEM build rates have slowed, and workforce reductions are difficult realities. Yet suppliers are proving resilient by right-sizing operations and keeping communication strong with customers.

Global Trade in Flux

Bain & Company’s Jeffrey Crane reminded us that politics and global trade are inseparable. With de-globalization, tighter capital markets and workforce shifts, suppliers cannot afford to wait for certainty—it won’t arrive. The winners will be those who build adaptability and flexibility into their strategies while preparing for greater domestic opportunities.

What This Means for Suppliers

The through-line across these perspectives is that 2025 is not about survival—it’s about positioning. The decisions suppliers make now in cost discipline, workforce strategy and customer alignment will determine who thrives when the rebound comes.

My Conclusion: Preparing for the Pivot

The commercial vehicle industry in 2025 is not in freefall—but it is in a holding pattern. As suppliers recalibrate and economic forces realign, the key to success lies in strategic patience, operational agility and long-term vision. The rebound may not come tomorrow, but when it does, those who’ve prepared will be best positioned to lead.

At MEMA OE, we believe our role is to help suppliers not just weather the storm, but to shape the future. Through our commercial vehicle programming—including peer councils, OEM town halls, and the Outlook Conference—we provide the forums, insights and connections suppliers need to navigate uncertainty and lead with confidence.

If you’d like to learn more about how to get involved with our commercial vehicle councils or upcoming programming, please reach out to me directly at rallerton@mema.org. Together, we can prepare for the pivot and build the resilient future this industry demands.