Navigating Disruption: How the Commercial Vehicle Industry Is Building Strength in Uncertainty

Resilience in a Year of Uncertainty 

The commercial vehicle (CV) industry has undeniably faced many challenges in 2025. This time last year, industry conversations centered around the timing and impact of the 2027 Model Year (27MY) emissions pre-buy—how to prepare, plan and position for it.  Once again, an unforeseen variable reshaped the landscape—true to the post-COVID pattern. 

Tariff actions have brought a wave of cost pressures, supply chain disruptions and strategic instability that combined with deteriorating fleet health, created the perfect storm to stall production across North America. Through it all, MEMA Original Equipment Suppliers members have also navigated an unpredictable legislative and regulatory landscape—balancing investment decisions across manufacturing, supply chain, emissions and sustainability. 

Despite the turbulence, one truth cuts through: MEMA member engagement has never been stronger. Instead of retreating, MEMA members have leaned in in record numbers through partnership with our Advocacy team in Washington, D.C., the MEMA Trade Working Group and our MEMA peer group councils. Our members understand that success in this environment depends on being prepared: 

• To navigate uncertainty.
• To adapt to market shifts.
• To perform when the cycle turns upward. 

The theme of being "better prepared" has become a defining thread across our MEMA CV leadership councils: our Heavy Duty Business Forum, Heavy Duty Advanced Technology Council and the Heavy Duty Sales & Marketing Forum. Members are engineering adaptability into their business models, localizing intelligently and transforming supply chain intelligence into strategic advantage. 

Amid economic and policy turbulence, commercial vehicle industry leaders are building strength in uncertainty, turning disruption into opportunity and preparing for a more stable, data-driven future. 

A Market Balancing Caution and Capability 

As 2025 draws to a close, the commercial vehicle industry stands at an inflection point caught between trade volatility, shifting emissions policies and persistent freight weakness. MEMA’s CV members remain cautious but operationally resilient: while near-term production and order volumes have softened, long-term confidence in North American competitiveness remains strong. 

That tension is now shaping day-to-day strategy. Across OEM, OES-aftermarket and independent channels, companies are recalibrating expectations, reassessing tariff exposure and preparing for a more complex USMCA review cycle in 2026. The next competitive frontier lies not in scale, but in speed and agility, utilizing AI to turn the flood of data across manufacturing and operations into actionable intelligence that delivers real ROI. 

The industry’s challenge is clear: how to turn the flood of operational and engineering data into actionable intelligence that drives ROI and competitive advantage. 

The CV industry’s digital transformation is no longer optional—it’s essential. The fleets that will win in the coming decade will not just automate tasksthey will curate intelligence from every mile, every asset and every transaction. 

From yard autonomy to generative engineering, and from renewable fuels to data-driven risk reduction, the industry is proving that innovation and practicality can coexist,so long as leaders focus on ROI, not hype. 

Production Outlook: Stability Before Growth 

After years of overcapacity, 2026 is predicted to be a year of stabilization, not surge. Fleets and manufacturers face a marketplace where recovery is slow and regulation is unpredictable. Many suppliers anticipate a muted 2026, followed by a rebound in 2027–28 as deferred replacement demand builds.  If 27MY emissions timing holds, we could see improvements in the second half of 2026. 

Transition, Not Decline 

Commercial vehicle production in 2026 will not be defined by volume growth, but by strategic recalibration. After years of volatility, the industry is entering a phase of operational realism, focused less on chasing demand spikes and more on building resilience against cyclical and policy shocks. 

The long-term fundamentals remain intact: freight remains indispensable to economic activity and modernization will continue to drive investment. Against that backdrop, 2026 becomes a year to rebuild confidence, recalibrate production and prepare for a smarter, leaner and ultimately more sustainable freight future. 

USMCA 2026 Review: Continuity Over Complexity 

MEMA members overwhelmingly support maintaining the structure of USMCA while simplifying its execution. The top priorities for the 2026 review include: 

• Simplifying and clarifying RVC/LVC thresholds.
• Exempting USMCA-qualified goods from Section 232 tariffs.
• Strengthening enforcement to prevent circumvention by Chinese-owned firms via Mexico and Canada.
• Updating definitions for core parts and remanufactured goods to reflect modern production and electrification. 

The goal is clear: preserve North American manufacturing strength through clarity, consistency and enforceability—not complexity. 

In Conclusion: Transitioning with Purpose 

The CV sector enters 2026 facing fragile recovery, elevated trade costs and policy uncertainty. Yet its core remains resilient. MEMA members are not waiting for the cycle to turn; they are engineering resilience and adaptability into their business, localizing intelligently and redefining supply chain visibility as the foundation for long-term competitiveness. 

As I’ve seen firsthand, the companies that emerge stronger from this cycle won't be those with the biggest footprint, but those with the clearest visibility, flexibility and foresight.