U.S. Light Vehicle Automotive Aftermarket Projected to Reach $435 Billion in 2025

BETHESDA, Md. and RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C. – The Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers announced the availability of the 2025 Joint Channel Forecast, offering a comprehensive review and analysis of the size of the U.S. aftermarket, the forecast for growth through 2028 and the trends in the industry shaping this growth. The Joint Channel Forecast is prepared by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The forecast model provides a detailed examination of the automotive aftermarket landscape, offering insights into key influences and market trends shaping the industry's changing size. Drawing on extensive research and analysis, the model delivers valuable projections for industry stakeholders, enabling informed decision-making and strategic planning.

Forecast for 2025 and Beyond

The Joint Channel Forecast sheds light on the performance of the U.S. aftermarket in 2024 and provides insightful forecasts for 2025. Notably, the total market size of the light duty aftermarket in 2025 is projected to reach $435 billion and is forecast to grow at above pre-pandemic growth rates through 2028. The aftermarket is projected to top $500 billion by 2028, just four years after topping $400 billion.

Meanwhile, in the struggle for market share, the service channel retains the 0.6 percentage point gain that it claimed from the dealer channel in 2024. The dealer channel has lost 1.4 percentage points since 2017.

"The automotive aftermarket continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience and growth," said Paul McCarthy, president of MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers. "The 2025 Joint Channel Forecast predicts consumers will spend $435 billion to repair and maintain their vehicles this year, while future years will surpass pre-pandemic growth rates in dollar terms. Consumers and our country need the aftermarket. This study provides our members with valuable insights into market trends and emerging opportunities to support their business decisions."

"The U.S. automotive aftermarket is poised for significant growth, and this report highlights the industry's strength and resilience in the face of evolving challenges," said Bill Hanvey, president and CEO, Auto Care Association. "The Joint Channel Forecast gives our members the insights needed to navigate this dynamic landscape. We are proud to provide this valuable resource each year to empower our members in making their strategic business decisions to drive our industry’s growth through 2028 and beyond."

The Joint Channel Forecast Model report is available to Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers members as a membership benefit.

Auto Care members can access the Joint Channel Forecast report in the 2026 Auto Care Factbook at digital.autocare.org/2026factbook. MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers can access the report at mema.org/JCF.